Sailing in Choppy Waters
Just a couple of months ago it was an absolute blue-sky scenario for the Indian markets aided by positive news flow from all corners of the world, be it development on the vaccine front, economic activity picking up, etc. But all of sudden the Indian markets took a 180-degree turn and Nifty has recorded fall of over 1,100 points from its all-time highs, which was registered on February 16, 2021. Was this something new for us? Not at all! Time and again we have issued word of caution to our readers and in our last editorial as well we had warned that the markets would witness selling pressure. So, what has resulted in this negative turnaround in the markets?
The volatility in the US and other global bond markets has taken the wind out of the sails of equity markets. The US ten-year bond yield, which has jumped nearly 80 per cent from its January 2021 lows and is showing no sign of abating, has created a sense of uncertainty. The bulls have been shaken up a little bit and they do not want to chase prices at any levels as there is a general realisation that stocks cannot keep on going up all the time. There will always be hurdles and this time around the big hurdle is the double whammy of US’ bond yields which have a direct impact on overall liquidity flow and the resurgence of corona virus cases which could have an adverse impact on economic recovery.
We are well aware of the fact that the current Bull Run was aided by global liquidity created by aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus by all economies. The FIIs pumped a staggering Rs 179,104 crore in the last five months at an average of almost Rs 36,000 crore; however, the inflow from the FIIs has slowed down significantly as month-till-date they have invested Rs 5,595.39 crore and moreover in the last three trading sessions FIIs have sold to the tune of Rs 2,847 crore. Further, the rapid surge in corona virus cases in India is an indication that India may be on the cusp of a second wave and this may disrupt the nascent economic recovery curve.
A big development which took place during the week was the much-awaited judgment on the loan moratorium extension and interest on the interest waiver case. The Supreme Court declined pleas for complete waiver of interest during moratorium, extension of loan moratorium and period of resolution mechanisms and at the same time it has vacated the interim order of not classifying NPAs from September 20. The apex court, however, ordered a waiver of compound interest for all borrowers that availed a loan moratorium.
Now that the Supreme Court has lifted the standstill of NPA classification, banks will be declaring actual and not pro-forma NPAs in Q4FY21. In a report published by Prabhudas Lilladher, it has been mentioned that banks have been already disclosing NPAs on a pro-forma basis from the last two quarters. Hence, Q4FY21 should witness more realistic stress and may not throw large surprises. Now here’s answering the million dollar question of whether the fall will continue or not and which sector is the best to invest in these times? The Nifty has breached its important support of 50 DMA and is currently placed at a very crucial support level (61.8 per cent retracement level).
A decisive close below the 14,290 level would further intensify the correction and the next major support level is seen around the 14,000 level. Hence, selling pressure would continue in the near term. As for which sector presents a good opportunity for investment during these tough times, the first sector that we would prefer is IT. Companies in the IT sector face good earning visibility and very high level of corporate standards could do wonders over the next few quarters. Also, some selective names in FMCG companies could act as a shield in high volatility markets. Overall, be selective in your investment process and avoid outsized positions.
