7.5 Sample Indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
The following table (7-1) indicates the rationale behind reading some of the economic indicators with respect to future projections.
Table 7-1: A Sample of Economic Survey
Crisil Study - Economic Outlook 2008-09
| Parameter |
Indicator |
Forecast |
Rationale |
| Growth |
Agriculture |
3.0 |
We expect the Indian economy to grow around 8.5 percent during 2008 -09 compared to 8.7 percent (CSO, advance estimate) during 2007-08 as the monetary tightening undertaken over the last 2 years and world economic slow down is expected to moderate the overall demand situation. Fiscal stimulus provided in the bud- get would some extend sup- port the demand. Hence overall GDP growth is likely to slow down marginally.
. |
| |
Industry |
38 |
| |
Services |
10.3 |
| |
Total |
8.5 |
| Inflation |
WPI-Average |
4.5-5.0 |
Upward pressures particularly from rising international oil and firm food prices are likely to push up inflation next year compared to last year. |
| Interest Rate |
10-year
G-Sec
(Year-end) |
7.5-7.7 |
We expect the RBI to cut the policy interest rates in the next fiscal year as economic growth slows down. As a result the market rates would come down compared to the current year and we expect the 10 year G-sec rate to stay within the range of 7.5 to 7.7 percent. |
| Ex- Change rate |
Re/US $ (Year–end) |
38.5-39.0 |
Indian economy is expected to continue to attract foreign in-flow as it presents an attractive investment opportunity relative to most other countries. The RBI would continue to intervene in the market to curb volatility and try to moderate the appreciating pressure. |
| Fiscal deficit |
Fiscal deficit (as a % of GDP) |
2.5+ 1.0 |
Although the official target of 2.5 of GDP might well be achieved, the off-budget items will significantly push up the true fiscal deficit. |