Is Taiwan, the next battleground?

China is making provocative moves by sending more ships and conducting more drills

No one knew for how long the ensuing conflict would last when Russia invaded Ukraine or how deep the shockwaves would be sent to dro. 

However, as the war enters its fourth month, the economic consequence of the conflict becomes more apparent and the outlook does not look good.   

Against an already raging backdrop of global inflationary pressures amid rising food as well as energy prices and post-pandemic supply chain turmoil, the invasion of Russia in Ukraine only exacerbated supply & demand tensions, hurting consumer sentiments and threatening global economic growth.   

Amidst all the chaos, there is something silently brewing. Media reports and whispers swirling around hint that tension is escalating in Taiwan as China is making provocative moves by sending more ships and conducting more drills. China is gaming out an invasion and Taiwan is certainly gearing up for one after China has been provoking Taiwan by conducting frequent drills.  

Early this month, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) i.e. the Chinese army carried out drills as they conducted night-time bomber flight training. More than ten Chinese bombers took off at night. They were equipped with different weapons as they flew from a Chinese base and practised how to attack. Later, the Chinese released a statement wherein Senior Colonel Shi Yi, spokesperson for PLA Easter Theater Command said, “The Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has recently organised joint combat-readiness security patrol involving multiple services & arms in the waters and airspace around the Taiwan Island.”  

So, China has stepped up its drills and they’ve been doing so since the Quad Summit. China wants to keep reminding Taiwan that it is a cakewalk for their military to get to the island.  However, things do not end over here. The most interesting part is the role of drones.   

As per Wion, China wants to develop a smart drone. PLA is taking lessons from Ukraine as researchers are studying Russia's setbacks. They believe that Chinese generals should invest more in drone technology. And, the testimony of this is a statement from their study and here we quote, “As an integrated platform for surveillance and combat, drones speed up the operation of the battlefield kill chain, making the progress of war faster and more flexible than ever.”  

This clearly indicates that China wants drones for surveillance and drone can help them to bring a swift end to war.   

Here is an important fact to share; Taiwan tallied 2.1 per cent of the world’s total exports by value in 2021. Taiwan’s biggest export is electronic integrated circuits and related micro assemblies.   

If this nightmare turns into reality, there’s no doubt that Beijing will massively outgun Taiwan as estimates from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute stated that China spends about 25 times more on its military. However, on the other hand, Taiwan has a defence pact with the US dating back to 1954 i.e. Sino-American Mutual Defence Treaty, which means that the US could be drawn into the conflict.       

Now, the question remains whether the US would intervene or decide to remain against intervention. If the latter comes true, in that case, China would become the dominant power in Asia.