MOVING IN THE RIGHT LANE

“Change is the only constant and the nation today stands at yet another cusp of change. What the nation awaits is a change in leadership, a change in attitudes of our politicians, and a change in the overall environment from one surrounded by gloom to a more optimistic one.” These are the words from my editorial that I wrote exactly a year ago in the same space. And now as I reflect upon that editorial, it seems that every word has indeed come true. We were perhaps the first in the financial media (print as well as electronic) to advise our readers to ‘Modi-fy’ their portfolio. Those of our readers who had invested based on this advice are now sitting on huge gains (for more details please read our cover story).

Not only that, I had also predicted that the NDA would get more than 300 seats in the general election in our Issue No. 10 dated May 4, 2014, before any exit polls. It’s not any occult science but the ground research done by us that led us to predict the future with such precision. People all over India were fed up of the inaction of the previous government and were yearning for change. The general election of 2014 gave them the chance to change their destiny.

It was probably the first time in the history of independent India that an election was fought on the development plank. More so, it was after 30 years that any political party won with a clear majority. The ‘Modi’ magic that started last year with elections in four states out of which three were won by the BJP seems to continue with the latest elections in Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir. For the first time since the formation of Jharkhand, BJP seems to be forming a government on its own. Even in J&K, BJP has made significant inroads and has given its best performance. 

All this further strengthens and vindicates the central government’s development agenda, which they should continue with energy and vigour. Meanwhile, as expected, the opposition party is creating roadblocks in passing some of the important reforms that are necessary for the development of the various sectors and the economy. Fortunately though the government is determined to continue with the necessary reforms and has plan ‘B’ ready. As for example, it is considering the ordinance route to go ahead with the Insurance & Coal Mines Bill. This shows the government’s strong intention to usher in reforms.

Going ahead, I believe the momentum built in 2014 will continue next year too. Despite the fact that in the last couple of weeks we have seen a lot of volatility in the stock market and the frontline indices have corrected more than 5 per cent, there doesn’t seem much to worry about. On the contrary I believe that this is a healthy sign and a good opportunity for those who have earlier missed the bus and would like to get aboard now. The reason for such volatility is the sharp and sudden fall in crude oil prices by more than 45 per cent in the last six months. This has created a lot of upheaval in the global economy since oil exporting countries like Russia are bound to suffer whereas countries like India who depend on import of crude are likely to gain. The global economy will take some time to adjust itself to this new reality. 

On the domestic front, however, the next big trigger will be the full-fledged Union Budget to be presented by the NDA government. Expectations are running high this time from all sections of the economy, be it investors, India Inc. or for that matter many international observers. I believe that there will be a pre-budget rally that will take the equity market’s bellwether indices to a new high and the Sensex may touch 30,000 while the Nifty may come close to the 9,000 mark. Nonetheless, the further direction of the market will be determined by the exact details of the budget.

In addition to the cover story containing a portfolio of Rs 1 crore for the year 2015, we have a number of experts contributing their opinions and thoughts on how the year ahead will pan out. These experts are not only from the equity sector but also from real estate and commodity. I wish you all a very Happy New Year.