A PROMISING FUTURE WITH NDA @ 300 +

Let me begin with a very interesting perspective on the Indian elections as has appeared in the New York Times. V Mitchell, writes ‘It is truly the greatest show on Earth, an ode to a diverse and democratic ethos, where 700 million + of humanity vote, providing their small part in directing their ancient civilization into the future.”Though coming from an outside observer, the lines succinctly sum up the importance of the General Elections that are being held in our country right now.

The fight to rule the country is not new. But, never before in history, have Elections assumed so much significance as they have today. Political excesses reached a crescendo with crores either being swindled or wasted in unproductive expenditure. From coal to bandwidth every single resource on which an economy depends for its future development have found their way into the pockets of the corrupt. Those in power were either themselves involved or were found to be blissfully sleeping while stories of heist and greed unfolded right under their nose. 

The most wonderful thing about being born and living in a democracy is the opportunity you get to decide who you want to be ruled by. But no matter how wonderful an idea a democracy is, in the Indian context,years and years of growth and progress have literally been wasted because of badly elected representatives. There is no need to look much into history for a corroboration of this. All that has happened over the past five years is the best example of it. A listing out of all that was bad about governance over the past years would be a boring exercise to write as much as it would be to read as it has been done a lot many times before.

The point that I am trying to make is that, the ongoing election has offered an opportunity to the voters of this country to change governance for their own benefit. The Hope of a strong, stable and decisive government with a leader of integrity and charisma at the helm of its affairs is the need of the hour. From this hope sprung a phenomenon called NarendraModi (alias NAMO). The impact this one man has created so far seems unparalleled. The entire political theater has woken up to his war cry and is today in a mad scramble to ensure he doesn’t get to the Prime Ministerial chair.

But frankly speaking, all efforts seem to be going down the drain. More the closer we get to D-day, more it looks like the man is destined to occupy the most coveted office in the country. The point to ponder over is, whether it is Namoalone who is to be credited for this change. Well you could argue against this, but you certainly cannot miss the point that a strong leader with a strong mandate is what people have been missing for over 10 years now. Namois filling up that vacuum by a good margin.
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 Polling so far has been at record levels; in excess of 70% on an average across constituencies,which speaks a lot of how winds of change are sweeping across the nation. The additional votes are surely the ones that will create the difference. Namohas managed to polarize the voters in favour of the NDA and the increased turnout so far is a clear result of that polarization. Almost all leading opinion polls have given a decisive number in favour of the NDA led government. From what seemed to be farfetched a few months ago, today the NDA is looking all set to assume power with an absolute majority.

According to a study conducted by us, far above the 275 seats (the highest so far indicated for the NDA) we expect the combine to win as many as 313 seats on the lower side of the estimate. These are not just numbers but are carefully worked out estimates based on the pattern of voting observed so far and its expected impact on the remaining polling to take place soon.

The top 10 states accounting for as many as 73 per cent of the seats in number are expected to yield 245 seats (including those of its allies) to the NDA.UP is by and large the largest, which sends as many as 80 MPs to the Parliament. There the NDA in all probability is expected to take away 50 seats. Maharashtra (Total Seats:48; Expected To Win: 35), Andhra Pradesh (Total Seats: 42; Expected To Win:15), Bihar (Total Seats: 40; Expected To Win:31), Madhya Pradesh (Total Seats: 29; Expected To Win:26), Karnataka (Total Seats: 28; Expected To Win:18), Gujarat (Total Seats: 26; Expected To Win:23), Rajasthan (Total Seats: 25; Expected To Win:22), Odisha (Total Seats: 21; Expected To Win:13), Jharkhand (Total Seats: 14; Expected To Win:10), Punjab (Total Seats: 13; Expected To Win:10) and Chhattisgarh (Total Seats: 11; Expected To Win:8) are some of the very decisive states. Add to this a very conservative estimate of seats that could come from other constituencies and you know where the total is headed.

 A clear majority for the NDA will mean a lot at this stage. Growth has come to a virtual standstill and the confidence of the investor, big or small, stands shattered. With hope building on the above scenario taking shape, that confidence is gradually coming back. Markets are hovering at their all time high levels, a boost in business confidence coming from a victory for the Modi led government could see them get into an altogether new orbit. This makes it a very special time for the nation in general and investors in particular and hence we have brought out our Anniversary Issue.

 Just like the nation is searching for gems that can rule it in the correct manner, this issue of Dalal Street Investment Journal brings to you the real value creators of corporate India. After all it is these value creating entities which will help you build wealth in a meaningful manner going forward. The issue carries the perspective of many value creating entities reflecting on what really helps create value. The Super 50 and Elite 100 list of companies should help you build a strong portfolio for the future as these companies have been right on top of the value creating charts. We round up with many interesting regular features including the happenings of the fortnight which certainly covers one of the most ambitious acquisitions of today’s times.
 Do share your valuable hare feedback with us on comment@dsij.in

V B PADODE
Editor-in-Chief