Gold at Rs 90,000: Just 11 per cent Away from Rs 1,00,000 – Will It Reach This Historic Level by March 31, 2025?

Rising gold prices, fueled by global uncertainties and U.S. policies, raise the big question—can gold cross Rs 1,00,000 before March 31, 2025?

Gold stood out as one of India’s best-performing asset classes in 2024, delivering an impressive 21 per cent year-on-year (YoY) return. While soaring prices dampened jewellery demand, investment in physical gold—particularly bars and coins—remained robust. According to Motilal Oswal, gold demand is expected to rebound by mid-January 2025, fueled by wedding season purchases, though price stability will play a crucial role in sustaining this recovery. As gold continues its upward trajectory, a pressing question emerges—could it cross Rs 1,00,000 before March 31, 2025?
 

As of March 18, 2025, 24-carat gold is trading at Rs 90,000 per 10 grams, marking a Rs 440 rise from the previous day. With gold now just 11 per cent away from the historic Rs 1,00,000 milestone, all eyes are on the factors driving this remarkable rally. In the sections below, we will explore the key drivers pushing gold prices upward and whether this precious metal could reach the coveted mark before March 31, 2025.
 

The gold market is buzzing with anticipation as prices inch closer to the Rs 1,00,000 milestone. A major factor driving this surge is the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency in January 2025. His aggressive tariff policies are expected to increase inflation, which historically boosts demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. With global uncertainties already weighing on investor sentiment, these policies add further momentum to gold’s ongoing rally.
 

Another critical influence on gold’s future lies with the U.S. Federal Reserve. After cutting interest rates by 1 per cent, the Fed has chosen to pause further reductions. For gold to push higher, experts suggest that the Fed needs to lower rates again. A reduction in rates typically reduces bond yields, making gold a more attractive investment in comparison to fixed-income assets.
 

However, some analysts believe that monetary policy alone may not be enough to drive gold past Rs 1,00,000. According to Dr. Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, new external triggers could play a pivotal role. Events such as geopolitical conflicts, changes in import duties, or an escalation in global trade tensions could fuel the next leg of gold’s rise. Without these unexpected shifts, gold’s upward momentum may face resistance.

As Seeking Alpha reports, China’s central bank (PBoC) has increased its official gold holdings for three consecutive months, signaling a strong appetite for the precious metal. In January 2025, the PBoC added 5 tonnes of gold, bringing its total reserves to 2,285 tonnes, which now accounts for 5.9% of China’s total foreign reserves. Despite a six-month pause during 2024, China still recorded 44 tonnes of gold purchases throughout the year. This aggressive buying by the PBoC is one of the key factors supporting gold’s price rally, along with strong investment demand for physical gold—particularly in the form of bars and coins. This consistent accumulation is expected to improve sentiment in the market, as historical trends suggest that such moves by the central bank often encourage increased gold demand among investors.
 

As the economic landscape continues to evolve, all eyes remain on U.S. policy decisions and global events. Whether gold reaches the Rs 1,00,000 mark by March 2025 will depend on a delicate mix of economic shifts, central bank actions, and global uncertainties.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.