Budget Day Jitters? A look back at the last 10 years' market performance!
The past ten year budget days have delivered a median return of 0.16 per cent.
Budget day in India – a time for chai and samosas, family discussions, and a healthy dose of anxiety for investors. Will the Finance Minister's announcements send the markets soaring or leave them feeling worse for wear? While predicting the future is a tricky business, taking a peek at the past can offer some valuable insights. So, let's rewind ten years and see how the stock market has reacted to budget day over the past decade.
Market Moods: A Mixed Bag
As the table below shows, the market's response to budget day has been anything but predictable. We've seen years where investors cheered with gains as high as 4.74 per cent (2021) and others where they grumbled with losses as deep as 2.13 per cent (2020). However, the past ten year budget days have delivered a median return of 0.16 per cent.
|
Budget Type
|
Minister
|
Budget Date
|
Close
|
Prev Closing
|
Per cent change
|
|
Interim
|
N. Sitharaman
|
February 01, 2023
|
17,616.30
|
17,662.15
|
-0.26
|
|
Full
|
N. Sitharaman
|
February 01, 2022
|
17,576.85
|
17,339.85
|
1.37
|
|
Full
|
N. Sitharaman
|
February 01, 2021
|
14,281.20
|
13,634.60
|
4.74
|
|
Full
|
N. Sitharaman
|
February 03, 2020
|
11,707.90
|
11,962.10
|
-2.13
|
|
Interim
|
Piyush Goyal
|
February 01, 2019
|
10,893.65
|
10,830.95
|
0.58
|
|
Full
|
Arun Jaitley
|
February 01, 2018
|
11,016.90
|
11,027.70
|
-0.10
|
|
Full
|
Arun Jaitley
|
February 01, 2017
|
8,716.40
|
8,561.30
|
1.81
|
|
Full
|
Arun Jaitley
|
February 29, 2016
|
6,987.05
|
7,029.75
|
-0.61
|
|
Full
|
Arun Jaitley
|
February 28, 2015
|
8,901.65
|
8,844.60
|
0.65
|
|
Full
|
Arun Jaitley
|
July 10, 2014
|
7,567.75
|
7,585.00
|
-0.23
|
|
Interim
|
P Chidambaram
|
February 17, 2014
|
6073.3
|
6048.35
|
0.41
|
|
Full
|
P Chidambaram
|
February 28, 2013
|
5,693.05
|
5,796.90
|
-1.79
|
Beyond the Numbers:
So, what do these numbers tell us? Budget day performance is driven by a complex interplay of factors, not just the actual budget announcements. Economic sentiment, global cues, and investor expectations all play a role. While past performance isn't a guarantee of future results, it does offer some valuable insights:
- Expect Volatility: Budget day is notorious for market swings, so buckle up for a bumpy ride. Don't make any hasty investment decisions based on the immediate market reaction.
- Focus on the Long-Term: Don't let budget-day drama derail your long-term investment strategy. Stay focused on your financial goals and avoid panicky selling or impulsive buying.
- Do Your Research: While past performance offers a glimpse, analyze the specific budget proposals and their potential impact on your chosen sectors and companies.
The Bottom Line:
Budget day can be exciting, but remember, it's just one day in a year-long journey. By understanding past trends and keeping your emotions in check, you can navigate the market swings with confidence and stay on track to achieving your financial goals.
Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.